Fit-out market 2022: key changes and forecast for next year

What happens to the cost and geography of purchases of materials and equipment, how the portrait of office tenants has changed, whether digitalization will remain among the key market trends — Pridex sums up the results of the year.

Point but major changes occur in the structure of purchases. Russian players are increasing their positions in the segment of finishing materials: according to Pridex, the share of domestic ceiling systems compared to 2021 increased from 61% to 90%, ceramic granite — from 26% to 37%. In the segment of engineering equipment, the role of both Asian and Russian suppliers is growing — this is most noticeable in terms of air conditioning systems, where the share of Asian products increased from 15% to 48%, as well as heating systems, where the share of domestic manufacturers increased from 28% to 85%.

As for the cost, in February-March of this year, prices showed a truly explosive increase: for example, the cost of finishing materials jumped by almost 50%, engineering equipment — by 43%, base materials — by 30%. Then, starting from May, there was a reverse trend in the market, and by the end of August, the decline in prices for certain categories of goods reached 15%. Parallel imports played a key role in this, which, however, did not reduce the importance of the currency component for the final cost. As a result, by the end of the year, prices again went up after the weakening of the ruble and now are still far from January in all three segments.

The trend that is traced throughout 2022 is likely to remain unchanged next year: the demand for fit-out services will be formed mainly due to large Russian business, which managed to occupy niches vacated by foreign competitors, as well as due to companies with state participation. In the first case, these are IT and telecommunications, the financial sector, construction, logistics and transport, in the second — companies that are engaged in import substitution, as well as mining.

Growth in demand for fit-out from flexible office network operators is also expected — in the face of increased logistical risks, as well as a shortage of individual elements of decoration and interior, many business owners choose the side of ready-made solutions, which makes service offices an increasingly popular format.

A significant part of the workers who are engaged in finishing and equipping spaces are foreign citizens, and at the beginning of the year the market was afraid of an outflow of qualified personnel, since it was these workers who most felt the consequences of the weakening ruble. And although now it is difficult to predict the further development of events, at the moment the situation remains stable, and it is obvious that the worst forecasts have not come true.

As for Russian specialists, according to our observations, their outflow is minimal — unlike the same IT industry, where many highly qualified employees preferred to leave the country at least temporarily, there is no shortage of personnel for the fit-out market.

According to Pridex, the share of smart stuffing costs in the total cost of office finishing has increased from 4% to 20% over the past four years — and this figure continues to grow despite the current market situation. And service offices are one of the drivers of the trend towards manufacturability — for example, in Moscow, more than half of the objects owned by the largest specialized operators are managed using mobile applications, which requires the presence of an appropriate IT infrastructure.

In Russia, the main obstacle to the development of digital office ecosystems remains the difficulties in supplying the necessary equipment — about 50% of components are imported from the USA, Germany, Spain, Japan and France. Nevertheless, the presence of original Russian software, which is a key element of the smart office infrastructure, makes it possible to integrate any components into the system, which significantly increases the ability to find a replacement.

Despite the fact that foreign companies, which were one of the main drivers of the ESG agenda in Russia, left the market, this topic still remains relevant for the construction industry. This is confirmed by the appearance in November of this year of the national standard GOST-R for the "green" construction of apartment buildings, as well as a similar certification system for commercial real estate Clover.

The innovation plays a particularly important role for the office segment, which, due to the high level of competition, ranks first in the number of certified facilities. For tenants, the presence of a certificate in many cases has become one of the primary factors in choosing a new office — this is especially true for the Moscow market, in which such a practice has long been the norm.

Source: cre.ru